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For example, government resource specialists widely use Trimble units such as the DX with ArcPad, and that’s one fact that I think Manifold needs to be cognizant of if they desire a lucrative government contract. I think that they won’t want to break the ArcPad/ArcInfo link, no matter how great or cost effective Manifold is Hmmm... it's as always a balance of what folks want Manifold to do, where the effort should go also given a balance between low-hanging fruit, hard-to-do but desireable objectives, what you get for the effort, how long it takes and all that. It's tough to predict what the best course is. As Neils Bohr (I believe) once said, "Making predictions is always difficult to do, especially about the future!" :-) Setting aside for the moment ruggedized, high end situations like specialized high accuracy GPS or especially ruggedized PDAs, it seems clear that for generic mobile markets overall the original Manifold strategy that PDA's would "grow up" into things that could run standard Windows, and thus be able to run standard Manifold, appears to have been the right call. It's happened slower than one might have thought five years ago but it's happening fast enough. Plus there are much bigger screens and widespread 3G cell networks for people to do web mapping stuff in many locations using "stub" programs on small devices. So if you really want something on a PDA you do it using a web browser connected to a Manifold IMS enabled site. The world is getting smaller very rapidly as there are fewer and fewer places without cell service. So how about the ruggedized, speciality GPS devices and the constituency they serve? The kind of guy who spends $7000 on a GPS device is likely to be fairly conservative in his choices. I agree with the implication of the quote at the top of this post that pretty much no matter what Manifold did it would take a period of years to overcome inertia to break whatever existing link is there. And then you also have the extraordinary conservativism of the GPS companies, which for the most part are ex mil-spec guys who like to do old-school business. It takes years of very expensive, national account selling efforts to get them to change, even if it is very much in their interest and in their customer's interests to change. Just look how long it took a virtual world of user flames to get Garmin to open up even just a little bit from their former "must buy everything from us" ethos. Likewise, perhaps even more old-school is Trimble. So it would have to be something that users would buy *despite* the inertia of the GPS vendors, and that's getting into a very small subset market of what is already a niche market. The numbers don't look very persuasive in terms of justifying a big effort to develop for that market segment and then to attempt to bust into it. But there is another way. Several ways, actually. The default is just to do what Manifold is doing, perhaps adding a few more GPS specific utilities of interest to that market to the standard Manifold product. GPS is a big deal overall, so may as well grow capabilities in Manifold here and there to support users. [Now is the time to get detailed requests into the product planning pipeline...] So that's a no brainer. As GPS devices grow up and acquire the ability to run regular Windows, as they surely will, about as fast as Manifold could develop speciality stuff in a full-court press and market it against headwinds, well, about that same time you could have a GPS device maturity that will run standard Manifold, but now with some additional GPS features as specified by expert Manifold users who know GPS inside and out and have sent in those detailed suggestions to help create their dream GIS/GPS fusion thing. It's also possible to create utilities that run in the GPS that are very simple forms applications that just acquire data into a local data store for batch upload to a desktop running Manifold. Why do anything except the simplest acquisition in the GPS device if it has limited GUI and limited (small screen, no mouse or real keyboard) ergonomics? There's yet another way to approach this which I am hesitant to bring up because it sounds so unpleasant, but as it is a very true part of the reality in which we all operate it should be said. The most effective way to deal with any predisposition to ArcPad/ArcInfo in government circles is to simply kill off ESRI. [A digression... Given the way the economy is going together with ESRI's decision to bet their lives on even higher priced, underperforming server-side stuff that is a real possibility in 2009. That's especially the case in government. Government is conservative, but they pay stratospherically high prices for ESRI software, to the eye-popping point that it starts adding up to real money that becomes a very tempting target when agencies are forced into looking for budget cuts. I guarantee you if the choice comes down to chopping headcount or replacing ESRI with Manifold, it will be ESRI on the chopping block, not the agency's personnel. I see that happening every day. We are booking record deals with government organizations who explicitly state they need to get away from too-high ESRI pricing. As one letter I was copied on today put it "We are currently exploring ways to end our dependency on ESRI products – as they are grossly over priced." A further peril for ESRI is that government pays very high prices per unit but it doesn't buy many units, so ESRI's revenue is critically dependent upon a small number of buyers procuring a small number of units. It's therefore especially tempting to, say, reduce from getting 100 units to 50 or whatever. Or maybe from 100 units to 10 and then spend the cost of what would have been ten more ESRI units for, like, 90 Manifold seats. :-) When they start looking elsewhere even just a little bit, it can be a big hit to ESRI revenues. You see this effect in other parts of the economy as well. Exotic, high-priced boutiques are getting killed while Walmart and Costco are having booming sales. Same here. I can't say for sure, but I have the strong feeling that as our business is booming ESRI's business in key segments is collapsing. ... end digression] Well, if you believe in that effect the way to leverage it is to focus on the main markets and double down on providing maximum quality, performance, capabilities and value in what is likely to be the decisive arena, the mainstream desktop personal, organizational and enterprise GIS markets. And then when ESRI and ArcPad are gone there will be fewer obstacles to doing whatever people want for specialized mobile devices and greater likelihood of earning reasonable profit from doing so. As I said earlier, it is not a pleasant thing to consider but it is a real enough possibility that it should be considered when choosing a strategy for attacking new markets.
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